브라질 vs 멕시코 알기쉬운 분석
Brazil vs. Mexico Pick:
Following Mexico’s poor showing vs. Sweden in their last match, I’d expect Juan Carlos Osorio to make some subtle changes with the squad as they prepare for Brazil. I’d expect Edson Alvarez to come out of the lineup on defense, and Hugo Ayala to enter at the centre-back position to give them a little more rigidity when under siege. Brazil is lethal on the attack and up front, and even though Gabriel Jesus hasn’t been in good form in Russia, he can flip the switch instantaneously.
Mexico shocked the world just over a week ago with their blitzes on the Germans when counter-attacking. Germany was too slow and too flawed in the midfield to make adequate adjustments, and they simply could not contain the tempo at which Mexico wanted to play. While that style was effective then, Brazil will make things quite challenging since their defensive shape and structure has been elite thus far. They’ve only conceded one goal, from a set-piece situation – and Mexico will be in tough to top that.
Expect Casemiro to play a huge role in covering Mexico’s midfield maestro Hector Herrera. He has been instrumental in winning balls and delivering them beautifully up top to the likes of Carlos Vela and Hirving Lozano on the break. Casemiro however is one of the world’s best holding midfielders, and should be able to really nullify the effectiveness of Herrera on Monday.
If Casemiro can control the midfield, look for Brazil to slow things down to a pace they wish to play at. Brazil can truly win any style of match and that’s what makes them so dangerous. Up top for Brazil is the dynamic striker Neymar, who after a slow beginning to the tourney, is rounding into form nicely. It’s clear he is playing more of a team-oriented game, but as he rounds into game-shape, his skill and overall quality will take over. The biggest weakness in this game is Mexico’s shoddy defense, and I think Brazil should be able to exploit it at least twice.
Mexico are a very good team, and it seems like the round of 16 is a cruel spot for them to again be eliminated – but Brazil is just better in too many areas. Even though Marcelo is listed as a doubt, you’d have to think he’ll tough thins out and suit up since he’s so vital to his squad. His attacking presence from the left-back position will give Mexico fits, and will create a bunch of chances.
Though I anticipate Brazil edging this out, their moneyline price is a tad steep for my liking, as is Mexico +1.5 goals. I do think this will be a one-goal match, with both teams receiving quality chances throughout. The Mexicans only know fast-paced counter-strike offense and should be able to catch Brazil once. While Brazil has too much quality up front to not keep their momentum going against a mediocre Mexican defense. For those reasons, consider ‘Both Teams to Score’ and the Over 2.5 in what should produce some thrilling football.
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한골차싸움 / 양팀득점 / 2.5오바
*팩트 94년월드컵이후 멕시코 16강진출 --> 8강 진출횟수0회
